Ingredients of the Peace Treaty

Drafting a peace treaty is always a juggling act. Concessions must be made; ideology pushed aside to reach goals that are more important.

 

The primary goal of this peace treaty is to save over a million lives. If this war goes on for years, as it will without intervention, at least another million lives will be lost. They would include innocent Ukrainian civilians who simply wish to lead a peaceful family life, work, have weekends, celebrate festivals. Most of them probably don’t care about NATO membership, about Crimea, about whether they should speak in Russian or Ukrainian.

 

Those million lives and their potentially distraught families must be weighed against the obsession about punishing Vladimir Putin and his associates.

 

If common sense tells us that saving a million lives is a good thing, lots of concessions can be made to make it happen.

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Putin’s Russia can’t be given Ukrainian territory. Giving four republics away is not a concession, but a defeat. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, neither Ukraine nor the west made any concessions. They simply threw their hands up in despair.

 

All four republics, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson or Zaporozhe should remain part of the Ukrainian territory. That must be one of the peace conditions. If not, any big nation can grab territory of a smaller and weaker nation. China can legitimately take over Taiwan. Allowing Russia to take Ukrainian territory would set a bad precedent.

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Reparations must be made. Russia has destroyed more than 150,000 buildings in Ukraine: many of them residential. Ukraine will need to be rebuilt, and Russia as the aggressor must make reparations. Such compensation must be quantified. The world has some leverage over Russia. Over $300 billion of Russian funds have been reportedly frozen by the west. If this money is indeed available, it will contribute to re-build Ukraine. Reparations are another condition of the peace treaty.

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In the last twelve months, Putin’s regime has become repressive as never before. In April 2023, Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison simply for speaking against the war. The war-related laws have crushed dissent and any pretense of democracy. In this war, the peace-loving Ukrainians and the peace-loving Russians are both victims. Political prisoners, particularly those detained or imprisoned since the war, must be freed. It will be a mockery ending the war but letting Russians who opposed it remain in prison. Freedom of prominent political prisoners like Alexey Navalny or the wall street journalist Evan Gershkovic must be a condition of the peace treaty.

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From Russia’s viewpoint, getting the sanctions removed is essential for its long-term well-being. Russian planes can start flying to Europe again. Trade can start in full flow. Foreign companies can return to Russia. Russian athletes can proudly display their country’s flag. Russian credit cards can start working abroad. Oligarchs would re-establish control over their assets outside Russia.

 

Like the frozen funds, this is another leverage point for the world. Russian sanctions should be removed gradually, in stages, subject to Russia fulfilling the agreed conditions at each stage.

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If Russia won’t win any territory, must pay war reparations to Ukraine, free all political prisoners, why would Putin agree to a peace treaty?

 

Putin has been told to end the war, announce ceasefire and withdraw troops. Macron, Erdogan, Modi, Biden, Xi, Scholtz have all told him that. He has not agreed so far. Why?

 

Because Putin must show to the Russian public a victory of some kind. Putin should be able to save his face. Deaths of the tens of thousands of Russian soldiers must have some justification.

 

Such victory can be provided by the United States of America. In December 2021, two months before starting the war, Russia had offered two peace treaties, one with NATO, another with the USA.

 

Russia has been screaming about the concept of “indivisible security” since before Putin’s famous speech in Munich in 2007. One country’s security is another country’s insecurity. Putin’s Russia doesn’t want American military bases in Georgia or Ukraine, too close for comfort. This is Russia’s stated position, and whether justified or not, there is some logic in it.

 

Discussing the concept of “indivisible security” so that Russia has the same protection as any of the NATO countries is one area that may persuade Putin to end the war. If this is a proxy war, and the true adversary is the USA, then USA offering to make concessions is a victory Putin can sell to the Russian population.

 

The draft treaties offered by Russian in December 2021 can be taken as a foundation on which the peace treaty can be built.

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Ravi