Who can end the Russia-Ukraine War?

Who can stop the Russia-Ukraine war?

 

Biden says and lots of people agree Vladimir Putin can stop it any time he wants. He started it, he can end it by calling his troops back, and stopping all military actions. This is technically correct but reflects poor understanding of Putin’s psychology.

 

This is Putin’s legacy war. He wants to go in the history books as someone who taught NATO/USA a lesson. For over two decades, Russia has expressed its unhappiness over NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe. For Putin, Ukraine is too close and too big a pill to swallow. This is the war in which he has staked everything. He is willing to suffer unprecedented sanctions. Willing to sacrifice a million or more Russian soldiers. Willing to repress every dissenting voice in Russia. Willing to damage the Russian economy chronically. His stopping the war by withdrawing forces would be an admission of defeat. Worse, that mere act is not likely to remove the sanctions on Russia nor to release Russia’s frozen funds. Outside Russia, he will continue to run the risk of being arrested and tried as a war criminal.

 

No, Vladimir Putin can’t stop this war by himself any more. He will do it only if he can show to the Russian public he has achieved victory.

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Can Volodymyr Zelenskyy end the war? He probably could, by surrendering. By agreeing to give up the four Ukrainian republics. By accepting the prospect of a Russian puppet replacing him. But it’s too late to do any of it.

 

Zelenskyy could have surrendered in the first week after the invasion. Now after losing more than 100,000 lives, and suffering massive destruction; it would be foolish to surrender. He can continue the war as long as the supply of Western weapons continues. The USA and Europe have staked their reputation through emotional, financial and military support to Ukraine. Zelenskyy hopes that Ukraine can resist and maybe one day defeat Russia. Zelenskyy can’t end the war.

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Can the United Nations stop the war?

 

Well, the United Nations Security Council is the body in charge of international peace and security. Russia is one of its five permanent members. As a legacy of the Second World War, the five members are given veto rights, rights to block any UN resolution. In effect, the UN can't even pass a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, because Russia would veto it.

 

How bizarre UN structures can be is exemplified by Russia holding the presidency of UN security council in February 2022, the month in which it invaded Russia. At the time of writing this, in April 2023, Russia holds that presidency again.

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Can China stop the war?

 

China is another security council member. Xi Jinping recently visited Moscow to show support to his dear friend. China comes across as the big brother in the China-Russia relationship now. Like Russia, China would hate for the world to become uni-polar, led by America. China would support Russia economically and perhaps through some clandestine military aid. Xi Jinping could ask Putin to stop the war. But we come back to the question of Putin wanting to show some sort of a victory to the Russian public. Russia has already lost tens of thousands of soldiers. Putin must have something to show for that loss.

 

China could probably participate in the international negotiations to end the war. But by itself, it is difficult to imagine it ending the war.

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Can the USA stop this war?

 

Surprisingly, the USA is the only country that can bring this war to an end. It can do it in two ways.

 

One, by withdrawing support to Ukraine. America’s politics is divided. Its direction after the 2o24 presidential election is unpredictable. If “America first” thinking results in stopping the aid and weapons to Ukraine, the war will end in Ukraine’s defeat. Russia will annex the four republics, prevent Ukraine from ever joining EU or NATO, and declare victory against the evil-minded West. This is not a desirable outcome.

 

Better, the USA can offer to negotiate with Russia. In December 2021, two months before invading Ukraine, Russia had offered two peace treaties: one with the USA, another with NATO. Those drafts are an excellent starting point for talks. They will help establish peace, save America and Europe much in defence budgets, inflation and grain supply can ease. Putin will be able to show victory to the Russian citizens. For Putin, America making concessions is a much bigger victory than Ukrainian land.

 

Ravi