In April 2023, in one of his most candid moments in an interview, Bill Clinton said he feels terrible because in 1994, he pushed Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons.
In the early 1990s, the Soviet Union collapsed into fifteen states. Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s president, faced hyperinflation, shortages, the new Russian mafia, and dollarization. What mattered to the USA more was the sudden appearance of four nuclear States. Russia was the declared heir of the USSR. That allowed it to be a nuclear nation, and inherit a seat at the security council with the monstrous veto rights. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were the other three nations. The nuclear controls were with Moscow, but as Chernobyl (in Ukraine) showed accidents can happen even when the controls reside somewhere else. Ukraine had the world’s third largest stockpile of nukes after Russia and the USA.
Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed rather easily to give up their nukes. Ukraine didn’t. Nuclear weapons were the safety net. Having Russia as a neighbour carries certain risks. Giving up nuclear weapons meant exposing themselves to bullying, possibly assaults, and finally wars. You don’t stand a chance to fight, let alone win, against a neighbour who is 28 times larger and carries 6,000 nukes.
Ukraine could have kept those nuclear weapons as a security. But the USA felt uneasy. Every country’s business is America’s business. Bill Clinton, with good intentions, arrived in Europe, and forcefully persuaded Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons. Ukraine, the reluctant party, asked the USA to give security guarantees.
The document called “the Budapest memorandum on Security assurances” was signed on 5 December 1994. It prohibited Russia, USA and UK from threatening or using military force or economic sanctions against Ukraine, Belarus or Kazakhstan.
The document also assured the territorial integrity of Ukraine including Crimea. Crimea was historically Russian, before Nikita Khrushchev, inexplicably transferred it to Ukraine in 1956. This didn’t matter as long as Ukraine was in the Soviet Union. However, after the disintegration, Russia felt uneasy about Crimea continuing to be part of Ukraine. The Budapest memorandum settled the issue. Crimea would remain with Ukraine. From America’s point of view, this was a small price to pay for Russia. And America, as usual, was not paying any price.
It seems the Russians and Ukrainians were willing to trust each other in a bilateral process. But the USA was more worried. The process became trilateral.
I will quote from the book. “One key detail took place in a joint meeting of the three delegations. English draws a distinction between “guarantee’ and “assurance”, while both words translate into “guarantee” in Ukrainian and Russian. U.S. Officials read for the formal negotiating record a statement to the effect that, whenever “guarantee” appeared in the Ukrainian and Russian language texts of the Trilateral Statement, it was to be understood in the sense of the English word “assurance.” The Ukrainian and Russian delegations confirmed that understanding.”
Ukraine was thus tricked by the American lawyers into thinking they had received security guarantees. In reality, it had received merely assurances. In 2014, when Russia grabbed Crimea, the distinction between guarantees and assurances became clear to the world.
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Bill Clinton, in the same interview, confessed that neither the loss of Crimea nor the current war would have happened if Clinton had not pushed Ukraine into giving up its nuclear weapons.
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Ravi
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