Crimea: How to have your cake and eat it too?

Article 2: Crimea: Ukraine agrees to give Crimea to Russia on a lease for 50 years. Russia will pay for the lease through discounted gas prices to Ukraine. The lease agreement will be drafted on similar lines to the Partition Treaty on the status and conditions of the Black Sea Fleet (1997), Russia-Ukraine friendship treaty (1997) and Kharkov pact (2010).

 

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The black sea separates Crimea to its north and Turkey to its south. In fact, Crimea was annexed by Russia way back in 1783. In the Russia-Turkey war, Catherine the great, the legendary Russian empress, defeated the Ottoman empire to capture Crimea. In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev, the head of the USSR, decided to gift Crimea to Ukraine, ostensibly because of their proximity and cultural ties. Several possible motives have been suggested, and the legality of Khrushchev’s decision questioned. However, until 1991, it made little difference, since Ukraine and Russia belonged to the same country, USSR.

 

With USSR disintegrating into fifteen republics, the Crimean problem became acute. Russia demanded back the peninsula it had de facto owned for two hundred years. The west was more worried about Ukraine’s nuclear weapons. Ukraine was the third biggest nuclear power after Russia and the USA. It had nuclear stocks and installations, but the control remained with Moscow. As the Chernobyl disaster (Chernobyl is in Ukraine) of April 1986 showed, nuclear plants are dangerous no matter who controls them.

 

With Bill Clinton’s America playing a major role, Ukraine was pushed into giving up its nuclear status. The Budapest Memorandum signed by Ukraine, Russia, USA and UK assured Ukraine’s territorial integrity will be respected. In essence, Ukraine managed to keep Crimea by giving up nuclear weapons.

 

Provoked by Ukraine about to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, Putin’s Russia captured Crimea in 2014. Crimea’s citizens replaced their Ukrainian passports with Russian passports. Till today, Crimea is not recognized as part of Russia by most countries in the world.

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How should the peace treaty treat Crimea? It must be a delicate balancing act.

 

There is some sympathy for the Russian view. Historically, Crimea was Russian and if not for Khrushchev’s magnanimous act would have always remained Russian.

 

On the other hand, Ukraine gave up nuclear status to preserve its territorial integrity including keeping Crimea in Ukraine. Now the nuclear weapons are gone, and Crimea is gone as well. This is a little unfair.

 

Three historical documents guide us on how to have your cake and eat it too. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, similar issues arose regarding the Black Sea Fleet stationed at Sevastopol. It was a Ukrainian territory, but de facto Russia controlled it. The solution was to give it on a long-term lease. In fact, the Kharkov pact, 2010 signed between Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovich and Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev extended the Russian lease until 2042. Russia paid for the lease by way of discounts for Russian gas supplied to Ukraine. With the long-running conflict, those treaties are now abandoned. But the ideas contained in them are relevant.

 

Ukraine should give Crimea to Russia on lease for 50 years. That way, Crimea will continue to be part of Ukraine, but managed by Russia.

 

Another historical example we are familiar with is China leasing Hong Kong to Britain in 1898. That was also done after China lost a series of wars to Britain.

 

Fifty years may be time long enough for both Russia and Ukraine to be rehabilitated and develop normal relations again.

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Ravi