Another Good Friday needed

 Article 3: Donbas region

Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts will remain part of Ukraine. Ukraine will statutorily grant them a greater level of self- government. This agreement will be drafted on the lines of the Good Friday Agreement (1998) that brought to an end a similar and equally complex conflict in Ireland. Until complete peace is restored, the United Nations may appoint a peacekeeping force through chapter VII operations.

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Donbas, comprising Donetsk and Luhansk regions, is historically a coal mining region. Nazis occupied the region killing over 300,000 civilians, causing mass poverty and food shortages. After WWII ended, large numbers of Russian workers arrived here to repopulate the region. As part of the Soviet Union, with Moscow as the nation’s capital, Russification sometimes meant elimination of Ukraine language schools. In the 1989 census, 45% of the population of Donbas claimed their ethnicity as Russian.

A sensible thing would have been to recognise this multi-ethnic nature of Donbas, allow Russian and Ukrainian languages to coexist, and allow Donbas some autonomy to retain its cosmopolitan nature. Instead the Ukrainian government sought to make Ukrainian the sole official language. Russia actively nurtured a separatist movement to protect the Russians and Russian culture. In some ways, it was similar to the Tamils migrating in large numbers to Sri Lanka, forming an enclave and then demanding a separate state. Rajiv Gandhi, India’s prime minister, opposed the Tamil separatist movement and was killed as a result. Vladimir Putin opted to encourage and support the separatist movement.

As a result, the Russians or pro-Russia residents of Donbas are considered collaborators (or traitors) by the Ukrainians. Russians, on their part, have termed the Ukrainians Nazis. If Russia were to occupy Donbas permanently, Ukrainians may have to flee or get killed. If Ukraine re-captures it, Russians may no longer be able to live there.

A similar conflict was present in Ireland. The island of Ireland is split in two parts. It was initially partitioned in 1921 by the British empire on religious basis (Catholics vs protestants). The southern part, largely catholic,  later became the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland, largely protestant, became part of the UK. Since then the “Troubles” began between the Irish nationalists (fighting for a united Ireland) and Unionists (who wish to remain in the UK). After over thirty years of unrest, finally, in 1998 the “Good Friday Agreement” was signed resulting in peace for the next 25 years.

This agreement showed that in prolonged armed conflicts, compromises are capable of bringing peace. The 1998 agreement did not achieve Irish Unification, but achieved a ceasefire followed by at least 25 years of peace. These were serious negotiations conducted in good faith, with external pressure from the USA and EU. The complex agreement covers a vast number of issues and offers mechanisms such as the British-Irish council to promote relations among the diverse groups. The agreement allowed everyone in Northern Ireland to be British or Irish or both.

This agreement, in my view, provides an excellent template on which to build a Donbas (Donetsk, Luhansk and two other republics) peace agreement.

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Why do I suggest offering Crimea to Russia on a fifty years lease but not Donbas?

Russia has some historical claims on Crimea as explained earlier. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, on the other hand, were always part of Ukraine - in Soviet times, and after. Solving the ethnic conflict in Ukraine and dealing with the separatist movement are the prerogative of Ukraine. A peace agreement and UN peacekeepers can help Ukraine achieve that objective.

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Ravi