Russia, with its 6,000 nuclear weapons, can't be militarily defeated. The USA could directly lock horns with Russia, but based on the evidence till today, it is not willing to take that sort of risk for the sake of Ukraine.
Russia can’t lose but can’t win either. Russia could easily conquer the four Ukrainian republics if nobody was supplying weapons to Ukraine. Putin should have issued nuclear threats, followed by blowing up a tactical nuclear bomb in the black sea to block the west from sending arms to Ukraine. He didn’t. That was one inexplicable blunder in his otherwise relentless campaign. Now it’s too late to stop the flow of western tanks and rockets. In 2014, when Putin grabbed Crimea, NATO didn’t supply Ukraine with any weapons. The US and its European allies sulked, announced some token sanctions, and ran away from the battlefield. Putin’s success was bloodless and swift.
Though Russia’s population of 147 million is much larger than Ukraine’s 41 million, Ukraine has drafted all adult males to defend the nation. Nearly a million Russians may have fled Russia to avoid the draft. The fact that Russia hasn’t managed to reach its goals after a year of war suggests a demoralized, badly equipped, rudderless army fighting in an alien land.
Of course, the on-the-ground battles are only a part of the war. Russian artillery is strong. Putin has urged the weapon producing factories to boost production. Russian rockets indiscriminately destroy military targets as well as civilian objects. Russia can continue the artillery assaults to make life hell for Ukraine. However, that is not enough to win a war.
Putin’s goal is to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The annexation implies taking complete control of those republics. Giving each citizen a Russian passport. Replacing Ukrainian language with Russian in administration and education. Introducing the Russian legal system and system of governance. Allowing the new citizens of the four Republics to lead a peaceful and prosperous life. At least as peaceful as in the Russian mainland. This is what Putin had managed in Crimea. Crimea was quickly assimilated in a smooth transition from Ukraine to Russia.
Such peaceful life is no longer possible in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Russia can subjugate Ukraine, it can destroy everything with rockets, it can even carry out victory marches in those republics. But there is no prospect of peace for the residents. If Russia annexes them, Ukraine will continue to launch western rockets on their territory. Ukraine will not allow the “new” Russian citizens to live in peace.
That is the difference between Russian goals and say American goals in similar senseless wars. The USA didn’t have plans to capture parts of Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam to merge them into USA. US is content to go to lands located far, cause destruction, kill, terrorise, and withdraw at a convenient moment. Putin wants to make parts of Ukraine Russian territory.
That requires permanent occupation. Battlefield victories are easier, permanent occupation is difficult. With Crimea, Putin managed it. Now a determined Ukraine armed with western weapons effectively rules out the possibility.
In fact, while the world thinks the Russia-Ukraine war started in Feb. 2022, many Ukrainians call it nine years old. In Donetsk and Luhansk, for the past nine years, Russian and Ukrainian forces have been fighting for an upper hand. There is no reason why this stalemate should not continue for another ten years.
*****
Ravi
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