013: Scenario 5: World War III

Before I talk of the probability of the Russia-Ukraine war turning into a World War, I must clarify why Putin is paranoid about short-range missiles.

 

Several readers have asked why Putin should care about the missiles potentially stationed in Ukraine, as opposed to missiles flying from the USA. After all, Americans have the firepower to attack Russia with long-range missiles.

 

If the USA decides to attack Russia, it would use Ballistic Missiles, powered by a rocket. To cover long distances, the Ballistic Missile is launched into a high sub-orbital space, reaching an incredible 2,000 km as its highest altitude. It then re-enters the earth’s atmosphere and descends to reach its intended target. Despite its superlative speed, an American missile will need at least 30 minutes to reach a Russian target. Similarly, Russia can hit Chicago, which is 9,156 km away, with an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) launched from its Krasnoyarsk base. The Ballistic Missiles can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.

 

Russia and the USA have both developed missile defence systems. It is easy for the defence system to detect this missile flying high for 30 minutes or more and destroy it before it reaches the target. (At least, that is the theory. Many of these weapons have not been tested in a real situation). A single defence shield can work well against a single missile. In the Armageddon scenario, both parties can destroy each other because the number of missiles and warheads is far greater than the shields. The technical term is Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), a deterrent doctrine that has prevented a nuclear war until now.

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Cruise Missiles, on the other hand, are unmanned vehicles propelled by jet engines, just like an airplane. They can be launched from ground, air or sea platforms. Unlike the Ballistic missiles, they are always within the earth’s atmosphere, and can fly as low as a few meters from the ground. That makes them very difficult to detect.

 

Kinzhal, the hypersonic missile used by Putin on 18 March to destroy an ammunition depot in Ukraine, travelled at a speed of 100 km/ minute and could bypass any defence shields. Joe Biden candidly admitted publicly it was almost impossible to defend against a Kinzhal.

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The only conflict in history where the USA and USSR came close to starting a nuclear war was the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. The USA had placed Jupiter Ballistic missiles, nuclear armed, in Italy and Turkey. (America has an old habit of placing missiles in Europe). Before that, in 1961, USA had secretly supported Cuban rebels trying to overthrow Castro. That operation had failed. Castro asked the Soviets to help him. Nikita Khruschev agreed to place nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter another invasion.

 

It was the greatest crisis in John Kennedy’s career. The Cuban border is only 100 miles from Florida. While the USA could tolerate missiles in the USSR, their coming so close immediately raised the alert to the highest level. Kennedy’s diplomacy avoided a nuclear war. Khruschev dismantled the offensive weapons in Cuba. USA dismantled their ballistic missiles in Turkey and Italy. USA also agreed to not invade Cuba again.

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The short-range missiles are harder to detect and therefore harder to defend against. If my hypothesis that Putin values his personal safety more than Russia’s security is correct, then it is understandable why he is terrified of short-range missiles. I was surprised at his mentioning the technical range of short-range missiles in some public speeches.

 

Unlike Usama Bin Laden, Putin can’t hide in caves. He can be easily targeted with a Kinzhal type missile with minimum collateral damage. Ukraine is uncomfortably close to Moscow as well as Sochi where Putin often resides.

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Earlier, I have written about the Russian demands and draft treaties they have proposed over the past thirteen years. USA/NATO simply ignored them. One of Putin’s key demands is to remove missiles, bases and troops from Eastern Europe. He also wants American nuclear weapons in America, Russian in Russia. Currently US has nuclear weapons in Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. (If John Kennedy could remove them from Europe, why not Joe Biden?)

 

Eastern Europe is an emotional issue for Putin. Even if he were to control Ukraine, he would continue to be a war criminal. The sanctions on Russia would remain. There is little for him to lose. If USA doesn’t listen to him, he could target Poland, Bulgaria or Romania next. That would oblige all thirty NATO countries to participate in the war.

 

I have wondered why Putin has allowed European countries to supply arms to Ukraine. He could have simply uttered the N word and stopped the supply. My interpretation of this bizarre action is that he is testing NATO strength and weapons. If a war with NATO were to start, the weapons in a land-fight are likely to be the same as in use now. Ukraine may be a dress rehearsal for the war with NATO.  

 

As far as Putin is concerned, Russia-NATO war is on the cards. It may not happen immediately after taking over Ukraine. Putin will issue threats and give Biden time to make concessions. He will also need to count his losses in Ukraine and time for regrouping. If Biden doesn’t agree to remove some weapons and bases from Eastern Europe, the Russia-NATO war looks inevitable. Whether to call it World War III is a matter of semantics.

 

Ravi

(Next scenario on Monday).