Scenario 6: Nuclear/Biological/Chemical World War: Though I think WWIII is a real possibility, use of unconventional weapons is unlikely. In the first part of this series, I explained my assessment of Putin’s psyche. He is like a robot who always follows two rules. (a) Suppress, repress, or eliminate anyone or anything that threatens his ruling over Russia. (b) Avoid absolutely everything that may endanger his life.
There is currently talk of Putin planning to use tactical nuclear weapons (apparently there is such a thing) that are less destructive and less radioactive. Reports say he would use them to show the West he can. I have my doubts. Even a tactical nuclear weapon used in Ukraine triggers the Budapest memorandum and gives the USA a moral and legal authority to retaliate. Of course, if the attack is on Poland or another NATO country, article 5 will allow NATO to respond with nuclear weapons.
We must remember that barring a few domestic terrorist attacks, the Russian State under Putin has not been attacked - ever. Despite wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, and Ukraine. Putin’s life has never been in danger. I think he will try to maintain that record. He seems confident that if he were to attack Poland next, NATO will defend Poland in Poland. No-fly zone can be established over Polish skies, and Russian planes can be downed. Russia’s nuclear threat would prevent NATO from attacking Moscow. However, with a nuclear attack by Moscow, anywhere, a retaliatory attack may destroy parts of Moscow, Putin perishing in the process.
Conventional response happens at the place of attack, nuclear response happens at the source of attack.
Biological weapons are equally double-edged. If Russia were to release the smallpox virus from its Koltsovo lab, Putin may find himself at the receiving end. Use of chemical weapons, such as those used in Syria is possible, because the West has never clarified what their proportionate response will be.
My conclusion: nuclear war or use of nuclear weapons, however threatening, is improbable because Putin wouldn’t take any step to put his own life in danger.
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Scenario 7: Regime Change in Russia:
Two days ago, Biden said in his inspired speech in Poland: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Earlier, US Senator Lindsay Graham took to Twitter to look for a Russian Brutus who could perform a great service by taking Russia’s top guy out. Some angry and naïve people are waiting for that guy to shoot himself.
First, other than Hitler, no well-known dictator has committed suicide. They love themselves too much. Stalin and Idi Amin died a natural death after living a full life. Mussolini and his mistress were executed and hanged upside down. Romania’s Ceausescu and his wife were executed by a firing squad. NATO caused Saddam Hussein’s official and Muammar Gaddafi’s extrajudicial execution.
Second, a regime overthrow requires conditions of a revolution. The more I talk to Russians I know, the less I think any revolution realistic. Many Russian friends, my Russian language professors, my former colleagues support Russia’s actions. When they talk to me, I feel I am listening to the Russian state television. (I have at times wondered if they are right, and I am wrong. Is my brain washed, rather than theirs? However, Russian police beating protestors, Navalny’s poisoning, banning of independent media, 15 years’ jail for calling an invasion an invasion, Medvedev’s call to bring back the death sentence and a single man wanting to be in power for 37 years all point to an unspeakably depraved political system.)
Russians are capable of tolerating hardships for long. Communism, World wars, financial crises and an unending dictatorship have taught them stoicism. Clearly, we can’t expect a regime change through a colour revolution.
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Putin, in the last two months, has become increasingly paranoid. Russia did offer an excuse for his sitting thirty feet away from Macron and Scholz. (They had refused to do covid tests in Russia, for fear Russia will use their DNAs in some nasty way later). He used an equally long table when talking to his own ministers. And for the last two weeks, all his cabinet meetings have happened virtually.
In short, very few people can now access him in person. Russia invests enormous resources in protecting its top brass. In the Soviet days, the KGB had an exclusive directorate (Ninth- called Devyatka) devoted to this. I will attach three clips here: One and two show how well Putin is protected, even when he goes to the bathroom. The third one is by an American equivalent, a secret agent explaining how to protect the president.
These clips should tell anyone how unrealistic it is to arrest or overthrow a Russian president. Unless…
Unless it is done by a trusted bodyguard. History gives us at least two examples.
Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had ordered storming of the Sikh Golden Temple to crush a Sikh separatist movement. India’s intelligence agency had specifically asked her to remove her Sikh bodyguards. She refused. Two Sikh bodyguards emptied their rifles on her.
Another example is from South Korea. Park Chung-Hee was its long-term dictator (1962-1979). His reign was comparable to Putin’s. Initially Park received a high level of support when the economy was growing. Then the growth slowed, freedoms were suppressed, security services could arrest and detain Koreans with impunity. In October 1979, students started protesting, Park declared martial law in places. After a banquet in a secured house, Kim Jae-Gui, the Chief of Korea’s intelligence agency, shot Park and his bodyguard dead.
The danger for Putin, if any, is from his bodyguards. Particularly, if any of them has Ukrainian blood.
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If Putin is captured alive or otherwise, would that make Russia democratic and free? There is a good chance it will. In his 23 years of rule, Putin has never developed a successor. The mere thought of a successor is anathema for him.
If life were a Hollywood film, this could be the fairytale ending for the current crisis. But we know that God, or whoever creates those stories rarely writes scripts on demand. Fairness and justice have little role in them.
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Summary after analysing the seven scenarios:
1. Russia brutally subjugating Ukraine by May 2022 likely.
2. If America doesn’t offer concessions, a Russia-NATO war is likely.
3. A nuclear war is improbable, because Putin can’t endanger his life.
4. Risk to Putin’s person, if at all, is from his bodyguards, not from a Russian revolution. Overthrow of his regime is the most efficient solution for Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the world.
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Ravi
Thanks again. And I sincerely hope you are right re: Point no 3
ReplyDeleteAmen
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