012: Scenario 3: Russia Loses and Retreats

Yesterday, I wrote about a scenario where Russia achieves its military aims in Ukraine.

 

The inverse scenario is Russia’s defeat and retreat. A month after the invasion, Russia has not made demonstrable progress, Zelensky continues to be Ukraine’s president, Russian jets are downed, its generals and soldiers killed. It gives hope that the brave Ukrainians will keep fighting to a day when Russians accept defeat and retreat.

 

It’s like an unseeded tennis player fighting Federer or Nadal. The crowd enthusiastically applauds the underdog. They genuinely want him to win against the champion. In the end, the novice loses 3-6, 6-7, 4-6. It’s an outstanding fight, he won the hearts of the crowd, but he is still defeated.

 

Ukraine is that underdog today. But unlike in a tennis match, the underdog is getting butchered. What we are currently witnessing is the greatest reality show of the twenty-first century. Ukrainian civilians are mercilessly terrorized, bombed, starved, displaced, their women delivering babies in underground stations, families broken; hospitals and schools flattened. Then CUT TO: A well-dressed, well-fed smiling parliament or senate applauding president Zelensky’s speech on video. For the courage and fight shown by his countrymen.

 

A Russian retreat would have been a possibility if NATO had genuinely helped Ukraine. If a no-fly zone was established above the Ukrainian skies. From all the material I have read, NATO was unwilling partly because it was incapable of executing the no-fly zone. The proffered explanation was that it would provoke a NATO-Russia war, or a nuclear World War.

 

If Putin can stop a no-flying zone in Ukraine through a nuclear threat, he can stop anything through a nuclear threat. In a couple of weeks, he might announce that the West supplying weapons to Ukraine is an act of war that warrants a nuclear retaliation. Then the current supply of weapons will stop. NATO has opted to watch the Ukrainian massacre by standing on the sidelines.

 

As a result, the Russian military win in Ukraine can only be postponed, not avoided.

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Scenario 4: A Stalemate, a prolonged war

If the supply of NATO weapons continues, and the Russian military can’t get their act together, the battle in Ukraine may continue for a long time. How long?

 

I would say September 2022 as the latest month. Though the war started in February, the troops were waiting and exercising for a good three months before that. Wintertime is a nightmare for soldiers. The ice on the ground can be treacherous for moving tanks. Russian conscription (age 18-27) is for a year. Annually, those conscripts are replaced by a new batch. I don’t think Putin would like his army to spend two winters fighting in Ukraine.

 

Also, Europe is reliant on Russia for gas. In the summer months, Europeans may temporarily cut down buying Russian gas. Come winter, they don’t want to freeze simply because the Russian dictator is a war criminal.  

 

There are so many problems that are not sustainable over a long time.

 

Genocide in Ukraine.

Sanctions on Russia.

Mounting oil prices and global inflation.

NATO troops in state of readiness.

The unprecedented refugee crisis.

 

Biden announced today that the USA will take 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. Europe has already taken 4 million. The longer the battles rage, larger the territory under siege and bombardment, more Ukrainians will leave. In my estimate, by July 2022, Europe will no longer be in a position to handle new refugees.

 

In 1971, West Pakistan had started a genocide, rapes, destruction of East Pakistan. This was comparable to the holocaust both in terms of scale and brutality. East Pakistani refugees were fleeing to India. When more than 10 million refugees entered India, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi decided to attack Pakistan. The war was won, and Bangladesh was born. Indira Gandhi had maintained for a long time that events in East Pakistan, however gruesome, were an internal problem for that country to resolve. However, the ten million refugees forced India to militarily intervene.

 

I suspect by July, if the Ukrainian resistance continues, Europe will face a similar choice. To diffuse the refugee crisis, Europe will need to either sign “peace” with Russia or start a “war”. Ukraine has more than 25 million women and children. Not a number that Europe can accommodate forever.

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Here is the summary of the four scenarios I have analysed so far.

Scenario 1) The peace treaty: Primarily due to America’s disinterest, the war ending through a peace treaty is unlikely.

Scenario 2) Russia wins: Russia’s superior military power, its repertoire of weapons of mass destruction, and NATO’s cowardice indicate Russia’s win in Ukraine is highly likely. I think it will happen by May 2022.

Scenario 3) Russia loses: Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is unlikely for the reasons stated in scenario 2. Its victory can be postponed, but not avoided.

Scenario 4) A Stalemate: A protracted war that goes on for months or years. The battle for Ukraine going beyond September 2022 is unlikely, because many burning issues are not sustainable for too long. Refugee crisis is likely to trigger a specific action (peace or war) between Europe and Russia.

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In my view, Russia taking control of Kiev by May 2022 is the most realistic scenario out of the four. Will Putin stop at that?

 

I don’t think he will. He still must address the NATO expansion problem. He is now classified as a war criminal. Sanctions on Russia will not be removed just because he has taken control of Ukraine. The West has not listened to him for over a decade. He must make them listen to him.

 

Tomorrow, I will discuss what that means.

*****

Ravi