As far as Ukraine is concerned, Putin’s aim was to topple the Zelensky government, replace it with a Kremlin loyalist, announce Russia has liberated Ukraine from the vile regime, and make the new puppet president introduce whatever changes Putin required. (Such as a constitutional ban on joining EU and NATO, making Russian an official language etc.)
That he expected the Ukrainians to welcome the Russian liberators with a red carpet and flowers is, I think, a fantasy created by the Western media. Even in his emotional bellicose state, Putin is not naïve. What he probably believed was a quick surrender by Zelensky, who like millions of other wishful thinkers, didn’t believe the war would happen, until it happened. To save tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, surrender was a good practical option. Putin underestimated the resilience of a former comedian. (Zelensky, a young actor, played the role of the Ukrainian president in a popular TV series. Later, he stood as a candidate for the presidential elections, and won. An incredibly fascinating drama by itself).
That Putin expected a quick win is beyond doubt. From the first day, he called the invasion a “Special Operation”. (Russians calling it a war or invasion can be sent to jail for up to 15 years. From here, the joke about Tolstoy’s famous novel: Special Operation and Peace). ‘Special operations’ is a term from the NATO handbook, for military activities by special forces using unconventional techniques. The USA Navy Seals entering Pakistan to kill Usama Bin Laden is a well-known example of a special operation. In the first week, most analysts expected Zelensky to flee, surrender or be killed. As the actual events showed, there was nothing special about the operations, except Putin’s desire for an urgent regime change in Ukraine.
*****
Daily, I follow the war on Sky News, RT: Russia Today, Economist, Guardian, New York Times, Kommersant, Meduza (an independent Russian media site now in exile) to get closer to the truth. Many analysts in the western media optimistically suggest that Russian attack is stalled, that in the best case it will be a stalemate in a prolonged war.
It is true the invasion started as no invasion should start. A marketing company before launching a new product repeatedly communicates detailed plans to everyone who is going to execute it. It is said that in John Kennedy’s time, when asked the purpose of her job, a sweeper in NASA had answered: I work to send a man on the moon.
On 24 February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, not only Ukrainians but the Russian military was also taken aback. Many conscripts thought this was part of the exercise, until javelin missiles destroyed their tanks. Sustaining a 200,000-troop force with ammunition, fuel, food, heat, electricity, and communication equipment has proven a huge challenge. And many of the young Russian soldiers have been living in harsh winter conditions for months, not knowing when or which orders they would receive.
The plan to attack Ukraine in six different places proved to be ambitious. It diluted the effort. The losses have been heavy. In the first week, Russia officially announced the death of nearly 500 soldiers. This week, Komsomolskaya Pravda accidentally published the Russian defense ministry numbers as: 9,861 Russian soldiers killed and 16,153 wounded in Ukraine. (The information was hurriedly removed from the website). Over ten years in Afghanistan, 15,000 Soviet troops had died.
The war has been proving expensive for Russia. Every day, war jets make 200 trips, needing large amounts of fuel and spare parts. Ukraine claims it has shot down 50 Russian jets; each costing $20 million -$ 50 million. Some western analysts think, or hope, Putin will run out of money in a few weeks.
USA and Europe are supplying Ukrainians with anti-aircraft Stingers, anti-tank Javelins and explosive Switchblade drones.
The Russian army with low morale, and short of supplies will be defeated and Putin will not survive his army’s defeat, say some western observers.
*****
As against that wishful thinking, there are several counterarguments.
Russia has already changed its strategy after the teething problems. Now it is focusing on massive artillery bombardments and encircling and besieging Ukraine’s major cities. Once the population is deprived of food, water, electricity, communication; capturing the city is easier. In the last two weeks, Russian army has deliberately fired upon apartment blocks, hospitals, businesses, and bomb shelters to further terrorize the people. Already four million Ukrainians, mainly women and children, have fled, and many more will follow.
Europe is still paying $1.1 billion every day to Russia for oil and gas. It is unlikely Putin will run out of money as long as that trade continues.
This is a war of unequals. Russia’s defence budget last year was $45 billion. Ukraine’s was $4.27 billion. Russia has 900,000 troops with 2 million in reserves. This is 4-5 times more than the Ukrainian military strength.
It must be remembered Putin has never lost a war. He achieved his stated objectives in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea. His Chechen War had lasted for over nine months. War was in the air for more than a month during the bloodless acquisition of Crimea.
He is also willing to use every weapon at his disposal until he wins. Last Friday, Russia destroyed an ammunition depot in Ukraine with the hypersonic missile “Kinzhal” (dagger). Its speed is at least five times that of sound, and it is programmed to bypass all defence shields. The USA has confirmed the use of Kinzhal. Russia is the only country in the world to have developed a hypersonic missile. Russia didn’t need to use that missile to destroy the Ukrainian depot. It was more to make the point that Russia was willing to use the full assortment of its lethal weapons.
*****
Despite the setbacks, and an enduring optimism in the West, Russia eventually overpowering Ukraine is far more likely. I don’t think it will take nine months like the Chechen war. There will come a point when the refugee crisis will not be sustainable for Europe. Much before that, frustrated by the inaction of the west, Zelensky may opt to surrender.
A Russian win will likely happen by May 2022. Ukraine is too big a country to occupy. Russia will be happy to install a loyal regime in Kiev. Will this end the war? I will discuss that in the forthcoming chapters.
Ravi
Tragic if this is the ending
ReplyDelete"Russia didn’t need to use that missile to destroy the Ukrainian depot. It was more to make the point that Russia was willing to use the full assortment of its lethal weapons."
ReplyDeleteThere was of course a demonstration aspect in use of Kinzhal but I guess it was to a greater degree practical. The targeted bunker contained warheads of Tochka U tactical missiles (that were also used fo target the city of Donetsk) and effect of using Kinzhal with its supersonic capacity instead of a conventional missile under the applicable formula Е=0.5×m×V² should be at least 10 times as powerful with the same warhead. So practical aspect was very much in place, not only demonstrational.