Who can first publicly talk of a peace treaty? The two key parties are, of course, Russia and Ukraine.
Russia could announce peace if it emerges a victor. If it achieves a limited objective of occupying the four annexed republics or a wider object of taking control of the entire Ukraine, Russia can announce the war is over. This can happen if the west gets fatigued, its people start complaining about financing a war in a land they have never been to. Cost of living crisis is biting most of the western countries. America is debating how to avoid a historic debt default. Once the western stockpiles donated to Ukraine are over, USA and Europe will need to spend to create new fancy weapons. Ukraine has an insatiable appetite for weaponry that can match or outwit Russia’s. Drying of western weapon supplies will result in Russian victory and a possible end to daily battles.
On the other side of the coin, Ukraine may surrender. Russia may succeed in capturing or eliminating Zelensky. That may induce a hasty surrender.
Both these events are unsatisfying for Russia. Because the Russian sanctions won’t be removed. Russia’s isolation from the world will continue. These are not the type of sanctions that can be removed with a passage of time. When India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, the west imposed trade sanctions. Once that point was made, after a year the sanctions were withdrawn. India remained nuclear and sanctions disappeared. That is not the case here. If Russia succeeds in annexing parts of Ukraine or the whole of Ukraine, it is a criminal act. Putin has already been declared as a war criminal. From the west’s point of view, it also sets a bad precedent. China gets a licence to annex Taiwan. The West is not interested in letting Russia walk scot-free with war crimes. If Russia is not defeated, sanctions will continue.
Sanctions are the biggest leverage the west holds. Their scale and severity were unexpected. Putin is interested in a peace treaty, any peace treaty, that will get rid of the sanctions.
Putin and Zelensky are both proud characters. It is unlikely they will make a peace offer, since that will be perceived as a sign of weakness. Both want to enter peace negotiations from a position of strength.
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A third party is needed to make a peace offer. Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, China, even Elon Musk have made peace proposals at various stages. None of them have had any impact. Because they are not only third parties, but fourth, fifth or sixth parties.
The USA is the real third party. Russia has often termed this to be a proxy war against USA/NATO with Ukraine as merely a battlefield. That was the reason Russia offered two draft peace treaties in December 2021: Russia-NATO and Russia-USA draft peace treaties. That gesture said in a strange way: USA/NATO, sign peace with us or we will go ahead and wreck Ukraine.
It is noteworthy the USA has not offered any peace treaty. It is an error for the US to say Ukraine will decide when to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine asking for a peace treaty would be equivalent to a surrender.
The USA is the only nation that can offer a peace treaty forcefully. US signing long-term peace with Russia is what Russia wanted in December 2021, and that is what Russia wants today. The mechanism will be a matter of hard negotiations. But USA/NATO and Russia offering security guarantees to one another will solve this puzzle.
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Ravi
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