Abstract: A Peace Treaty that is just to all sides

With Russia openly and militarily wanting to annex parts of Ukraine, with Ukraine wanting to preserve its sovereignty and territory, with the west wanting to help Ukraine with weapons and training on one hand, and to cripple Russia through sanctions and isolation; the Russia-Ukraine war has potential to last for years. A very long chess game that sees pieces and pawns falling regularly can still end in a draw or a stalemate. Vladimir Putin, with whom peace can be negotiated, is declared as a war criminal. There is no guarantee that Putin’s successors will be any better. The division into “peace” and “justice” camps gives rise to contradictory goals, making peace negotiations impossible.

 

This paper offers an optimum and humane, eight-point, draft treaty that can balance the seemingly contradictory objectives. It recommends maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, war reparations from Russia to Ukraine, offering security guarantees to Russia, releasing political prisoners and prisoners of conscience in Russia, and removing sanctions on Russia. The aim is to bring back Ukraine and Russia to as normal a state as possible, as quickly as possible.

 

The paper argues that this can be achieved only by the USA. USA/NATO in the past had developed several initiatives and practices to create sustainable peace in Europe. USA offering security guarantees to Russia (in addition to Ukraine) would likely save a million lives, near complete devastation of Ukraine, a possible nuclear strike, and a deliberate or accidental World War III.

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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, two camps have emerged in Europe: A “peace camp” that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “justice camp” that believes the more important goal is to punish Russia. Three male egos (Putin, Zelensky, Biden) wanting to deliver justice may result in another million deaths, Ukraine getting destroyed, possible use of nuclear weapons, and an escalation leading to WWIII. The obsession with justice (Putin behind bars) must be weighed against the overall casualties and destruction. A binary choice of “peace” or “justice” is a fallacy. This essay offers a “Peace Treaty” that is “Just” to all sides concerned.

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With its 6,000 nuclear weapons, defeating Russia militarily is a fantasy. The west is trying to ensure “Russia doesn’t win” rather than a Russian defeat. Russia Ukraine war is now a weapon producing competition between Russia and the west that can go on for years. Meanwhile, Russian rockets destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian buildings. Deaths, injuries, rapes and torture will continue.

 

Russia can win a few battles in Ukraine, but to occupy the four annexed Ukrainian republics is not easy. Ukraine can legitimately attack them with western weapons. Russians have tried a variety of ways to conquer Donbass since 2014. This stalemate can easily continue for another ten years.

 

A natural or unnatural death of Putin is no guarantee the war will end. Putin, for all his faults, is more rational and sophisticated than his possible successors like Dmitry Medvedev, Ramzan Kadyrov, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Peace negotiations can likely succeed with Putin, rather than after him.

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Ravi