Article 5: War Reparations
Russia will pay to Ukraine an assessed lump sum or $1 billion a day, whichever is higher, for re-building Ukraine post-war. The compensation period is between 24 February 2022 and the last day of the end of all hostilities.
*****
Reparations are compensation payments made by a State for damage it has caused with its criminal actions. International institutions or a post-war peace treaty, such as this one, determines the sum based on the damage. One of the best-known reparations in history was what the German Reich had to pay after its defeat in WWI. The Treaty of Versailles required a payment of over 200 billion Gold Marks. The last transfer was made by Federal Republic of Germany, the legal successor, in 2010. Germany also paid reparations to allies after WWII.
Iraq’s attempt to annex Kuwait claiming it was part of Iraq was very similar to Putin claiming Ukraine had no right to exist independently of Russia. Iraq needed to pay reparations based on UN Security Council resolutions. (That is not possible this time, because Russia is part of the UN security council and has a right to veto any resolution).
In November 2022, the United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution calling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine an action violating international law and recommending reparations for the damage and loss of life during the war. This resolution is not legally binding.
*****
As a rule, the aggressor nation pays reparations if it is defeated. Why should or would Putin agree to pay reparations when Russia is not defeated?
There are no winners in this war. Russia’s casualty figures reportedly exceed 100,000 one year after the start of the war. Nearly a million young men have fled Russia to avoid draft. Many foreign companies have left Russia. Russians criticising the war have been jailed with prolonged sentences. Russian assets abroad have been frozen. Nearly all flights between Russia and Europe are cancelled. Russia has been sanctioned as never before. Both the nation and its citizens are isolated. If this is not a defeat, it’s certainly not a victory.
In this peace treaty, Russia wins two concessions: (a) Signing peace with USA/NATO, something that addresses Russia’s security concerns. (b) Getting Russia and its citizens back to a normal state, one that is not worse than before 24 February 2022. Such normalcy can be restored through the removal of sanctions.
As part of the sanctions, the west has frozen over $300 billion worth of Russian assets. Some people have suggested transferring those assets to Ukraine as war reparations. It is improbable such confiscation can happen within the international legal framework. At best, the un-freezing and returning of Russian assets can be delayed; it is doubtful if they can be seized or transferred.
Removal of sanctions is, therefore, the biggest leverage the west can use to make Russia pay reparations. There is a price Russia must pay to be a normal, sanction-free nation. The war reparations are not related to Vladimir Putin. If Putin’s regime is overthrown, and democracy established, war reparations must still be paid. Ukraine has already suffered massive number of casualties and destruction.
*****
How much should Russia pay? In September 2022, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal estimated the direct physical damage to be $326 billion. A variety of other figures have been quoted.
The actual assessment can happen only once the war is over. An independent international committee can assess the final figure. Based on the data till date, I am suggesting $1 billion a day from 24 Feb. 2022 till the last day of the war. That will also stimulate Russia to end the war quicker.
*****
Ravi
No comments:
Post a Comment