NATO, the military alliance, wants Russia to be defeated. NATO wants Ukraine to win the war. The US and Europe, the main components of NATO, wish to achieve this through two means: (a) Economic sanctions and isolation of Russia. (b) Providing weapons to Ukraine.
Economic sanctions were expected to cripple Russia in the first few weeks after the invasion. That didn’t happen. Self-interest triumphed everywhere. Europe continued to buy oil and gas from Russia (even now, Europe can buy oil with a price cap). China and India bought discounted oil. Parallel imports, a term Putin coined for legalising smuggling, have ensured sanctioned products flowing into Russia via Turkey and the former Soviet states.
The Russian economy contracted by 2.1% last year, much less than expected. The IMF has projected it will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. Though the growth numbers are small, they don’t exactly show a picture of a crippling Russia.
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Ukraine has survived the Russian assault thanks to the artillery, tanks, aircrafts and other weapons supplied mainly by the NATO members. But the supply was done with abundant caution.
Ukraine has been repeatedly told it can receive weapons to defend, not to attack. Learning to operate the weapons coming from different countries is a nightmare. Production in the US, lengthy shipment, and prolonged training of the operators means it can take more than six months for the use of the military aid cheerfully announced by Biden.
Defensive weapons were not able to work to perfection. When Russia fires 100 rockets on Ukraine, in the best case approximately 65 of them are destroyed by the defensive weapons supplied by the west. However, the remaining 35 indiscriminately cause mass destruction, kill and maim hundreds of Ukrainians.
Though Russia assaults Ukraine daily, Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russian territory, including Crimea. NATO is vocal about not giving Ukraine weapons that may escalate the war.
It is an asymmetric sword fight where one party is mercilessly stabbing the other with a sword, the other party is allowed to use only a shield, no sword please.
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In essence, the west is trying to make sure “Russia doesn’t win” rather than a Russian defeat. That objective has been achieved so far, at the expense of more than 100,000 Ukrainian lives and destruction of more than 150,000 Ukrainian residential buildings. These numbers will keep multiplying as the war drags on for years.
Optimists waiting for this war to end quickly should study the history of wars in our lifetime. Soviet-Afghan war (1979-1989), Yugoslav wars (1991-2001) lasted a decade. America’s record is poor. It left Vietnam dejectedly after a 20-year war (1955-75), and its 20-year occupation of Afghanistan (2001-2021) ended with nothing positive to show for Afghanistan. Sri Lankan civil war (1983-2009) and the Irish Troubles (1968-1998) conflicts similar to the Donbass conflict lasted for more than twenty-five years.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not much different. It is a weapon producing competition between Russia and the west that can go on for years. Meanwhile, rockets will continue to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. Deaths, injuries, rapes and torture will continue.
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Vladimir Putin is now a military dictator. It is naïve to expect him to throw his hands up, admit defeat, and withdraw his forces. Push comes to shove; he will launch a nuclear weapon. No owner of 6,000 nuclear weapons can be militarily defeated except in an Armageddon scenario. And the West by its actions have made clear they would rather run away than threaten Armageddon. After all, in 2014, when Putin grabbed Crimea, NATO did nothing.
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Ravi
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