009: How will the War End? When? (Part One)

On this twenty-sixth day of Russia invading Ukraine, there are several possible ways for the war to continue. This week, I will analyse seven scenarios, give my evaluation of how probable each of them is, and then try to predict the most probable outcome.

 

The key in this exercise is to remember that anything – absolutely anything – is possible. We often confuse what we don’t want to happen with what we don’t think will happen. Our imagination is often limited by our experience. Just because we haven’t experienced a full-fledged nuclear war in our lifetime doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

 

Just three years ago, how many of us would have believed that the entire world could be shut by a lockdown, that we would be washing our hands vigorously with soap many times daily; that we would mask our faces for years; and that we would be afraid to hug, even shake hands with our friends and family?

 

In any future analysis, therefore, it is critical to let the imagination run riot. Anything can happen.

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Scenario number 1: A peace treaty to end the war: This is different from a ceasefire that allows negotiations or evacuation through humanitarian corridors. A definitive treaty signed by Russia, Ukraine and USA, Germany and France as guarantors could stop a war. (NATO can’t sign an agreement, because despite its destructive power, it doesn’t exist as a structurally recognized legal entity. NATO has no parliament, no laws, no President. In that sense, NATO is a fiction. A military pseudonym for USA, if you like).

 

Scenario number 2: Russia wins: Ukraine surrenders or is subjugated. A regime change is effected, a Putin ally (e.g. Viktor Medvedchuk) becomes the president. Zelensky flees or is captured by Russians. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus (a total of nearly 18 million sq. km, with nearly 200 million people) are controlled by the Russian regime. Russia installs its military bases and missiles in Ukraine, close to the Polish border.

 

Scenario number 3: Russia retreats: With the fierce Ukrainian resistance, and the continued weapons supply from the west, Russia finds it difficult to capture cities. It loses an unconscionable number of generals and soldiers and realises it can’t win. Its forces stationed in Ukraine retreat. Ukraine declares victory in the war. Sanctions against Russia continue.

 

Scenario number 4: Stalemate: The war continues for years. Millions of Ukrainians flee. There are heavy casualties from both sides. Gradually, media loses its interest, stock markets ignore the war. It takes a form of Russian occupation, where the local government continues to operate in a war-like situation. We have several case studies with Soviets in Afghanistan, USA in Afghanistan, USA in Iraq.

 

Scenario number 5: Third World War: NATO- Russia war begins in earnest, with conventional weapons. Russia and China are the major players on one side, USA and other NATO countries on the other side. The war may be fought initially in Europe, but it can spread to other continents, wherever the missiles can reach.

 

Scenario number 6: WWIII with nuclear or chemical or biological weapons: Though for most of us, nuclear weapons have not been used in our lifetime, chemical weapons have been. In the last ten years, during the Syrian civil war, Chlorine, Sarin and Sulphur mustard were used. At its dissolution, the Soviet Union had the largest stockpile of chemical weapons, a declared total of 40,000 metric tons. Though Russia has reportedly destroyed them, the lethal Novichok was used by Russian agents in at least two well-known cases. The USA also has stocks of chemical weapons which they keep only for retaliation.

 

Smallpox is the only successfully eradicated viral disease. Despite requests to destroy them, its virus samples are still preserved in labs at Koltsovo (Russia), and Atlanta (USA). By now, we know how fast a virus travels through the world. Smallpox was far deadlier than any coronavirus.

 

A nuclear World War is, obviously, the most dreaded scenario.

 

Scenario number 7: Another Russian revolution:  Putin is overthrown or captured. His inner circle is arrested. Russia decides to become a democratic nation with freedom of speech. After an election, Alexey Navalny or a democratically minded person becomes the new president of Russia.

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This week, by a logical process of elimination, I will narrow down the choice of scenarios to one or two, based on probabilities.

 

Ravi