006: The Medvedev Doctrine

 

The familiar Medvedev is the one who can beat Djokovic. He is the good Medvedev.

 

There is another Medvedev, Dmitry Medvedev, who was Russia’s president for four years (2008-2012), and Russia’s Prime Minister for eight years (2012-2020). Not many outside Russia know him.

 

To characterise him, I would use what he said two weeks ago, when the West announced its sanctions after Russia’s military assault on Ukraine. “As a counter-sanction”, said Medvedev, “let’s bring back the death sentence.” This was his instant reaction. The weak Yeltsin had bowed to west’s pressure and declared a moratorium on the death sentence in 1996. That has complicated Putin’s life. Applying Novichok to opponents’ underwear is messy, and as life has shown - ineffective. Death sentence would make getting rid of opponents crushingly clean. As Stalin used to say fondly, ‘no person, no problem’.

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In August 2008, in a speech, Medvedev declared Russia’s five-point doctrine. I suspect Russia called it the Medvedev doctrine to counter America’s Monroe doctrine from the nineteenth century.

1.     Russia recognises that the fundamental principles of international law are of paramount importance.

2.    The world must be multi-polar.

3.    Russia doesn’t want confrontation with any other country.

4.    Protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they are, is an unquestionable priority for Russia.

5.    As is the case with other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests.  

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Today, I will talk only about points 4 and 5. You may evaluate points 1 and 3 in the light of the current events yourself.

 

Yesterday, I talked about the spheres of influence. The regions in which Russia has privileged interests include all its neighbours, considered the buffer states to keep the arch-enemy US and its allies away. Russia, the largest country in the world, has a land border of over 20,000 km. It has on its borders 16 sovereign states as well as the People’s Republics that Russia created and recognised through wars. In effect, Russia’s privileged interests cover almost one fifth of this planet. (Mumbai-New York United flights were cancelled this month. Indian passengers only then realised how difficult it was to bypass the Russian airspace.)

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Indians certainly remember the decades-long conflict between Tamil Tigers and Sri Lanka. Historically, Tamils from India had moved to Sri Lanka and formed an enclave. Unhappy with the imposition of Sinhala language and culture, they began a separatist movement. Tamil Tigers were among the cruellest terrorist groups in the world. India sent peacekeeping forces at the request of the Sri Lankan government (and not Tamil Tigers). India’s Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi refused to support them and lost his life to a Tamil suicide bomber. It took more than 25 years for the civil war to end with the defeat of the separatists.

 

The situation in Ukraine is similar but with a fundamental difference. The Russian government supports the separatist movements. Putin cleverly combines points 4 and 5 of the Medvedev doctrine.

 

This was done in Georgia before 2008, and in Ukraine before the current war. In Georgia as well as Ukraine, the separatists were given Russian passports - In tens of thousands. That makes them citizens of Russia, who need to be protected wherever they are.  Later, to preserve their dignity, Russia launches attacks on that country’s government. In 2008, this modus operandi was used in Georgia to create South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two new states. This year, Donetsk and Lugansk are created on Ukraine’s east border with Russia. All four are recognised only by Russia.

 

Putin regime’s actions would have been equivalent to Rajiv Gandhi issuing Indian passports to Tamil separatists in Sri Lanka. Then to protect them, declare the Tamilian enclave a sovereign nation, and invade and devastate Sri Lanka for the alleged atrocities against the Tamils. Rajiv Gandhi didn’t do any such thing. Putin did and perversely called it a genocide by the Ukrainian government.

 

Minorities, at birth or through immigration, are expected to melt in the national pot, learn the local language, culture, eat local food. A Nation-state’s boundaries define a State irrespective of the ethnicities of the citizens.

 

The Medvedev doctrine talking about “wherever the Russians are” is foul and toxic. Providing passports and military assistance is a war tactic, not nationalism.

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On 12 July 2021, Putin published a 5000-word essay, essentially declaring that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. He argued that modern day Ukraine occupies historically Russian lands. The essay offered first hints of the impending annexation. Putin said: ‘I am becoming more and more convinced of this: Kyiv simply doesn’t need Donbass.’

 

Not to be left behind his puppeteer, Medvedev published a shorter article in Kommersant on 11 October 2021. It was crass even by Medvedev’s standards. He said, “the current president (Zelensky) of this exhausted country is a person of certain ethnic roots” before comparing Zelensky to German Jews forced to collaborate with the Nazi regime.

 

Medvedev would do well not to hurry with reinstalling the death sentence. It may boomerang to hit him.

 

Ravi